Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
