Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
